IT HAS BEEN A WHILE since I last sat down with some garbled thoughts and seemingly iron-clad reasoning and gave predictions on one of golf’s biggest events.
The Masters signifies the awakening of something strange and beautiful in golf - and sports fans in general – all over the world. As the clocks spring forward in late March in the UK, we notice brighter colours, more flowers, we get some time back, golf courses become busier and look more inviting.
All of which is amplified to the nth degree at Magnolia Lane in just a few days.
Prelude:
The best major in the last decade was definitely the 2019 Masters. A close second would be the 2016 Open for the sheer talent on display and one of the game’s best ball strikers finally reaching the vein of form he required to break the major duck. The European Ryder Cup fan in me also loved seeing Sergio Garcia win at Augusta, meaning the US Ryder Cup fans had to come up with a fresh chant that reflected his new non-zero major tally.
A Major Disappointment?
The five year anniversary of the first Covid-induced lockdown recently passed, which made me realise I have found the post-pandemic majors to be underwhelming.
A November Masters win for DJ in 2020, a Morikawa brace in quick succession that most golf fans couldn’t tell you much about, and even a 50 year-old Lefty win, as well as Brooks overtaking Rory in the lifetime major tally.
A lot of American winners (14), Scottie Scheffler with two green jackets, Bryson with two US Opens, JT capitalising on the skankiest 72nd hole tee shot in modern times (sorry Mito Pereira) for his 2nd PGA Trophy, and Xander making hay in 2024 is a reasonable summary of the last 19 iterations of the Big 4 (future pub quiz question, who was the winner of the 2020 Open Championship?).
The golf/European/Rory fans will not-so-fondly remember the 2022 Open at St Andrews and the 2024 US Open, and others, for similar reasons, where McIlroy wielded the famous anti-gravity golf ball during his final round and could not hole a putt. Matt Fitzpatrick (2022 US Open) and Jon Rahm (2023 Masters) are our shining lights since the arrival of Covid-19.
Main Event – Paddy’s Picks for The Masters 2025:
Anyway. We are all ready and waiting for the par 3 tournament - cheesy family pictures and the confirmation that the winner will not win the actual event - before Gary Player’s ceremonial opening tee shot to be over and done with so we can get into the real golf.
I have 6 names for you to consider slipping into the betting stable, and an extra dilemma to finish.
1) Collin Morikawa – 12/1
Morikawa’s record here is certainly under the radar. Having almost won at Bay Hill, and considering his form at The Masters, the bookies have caught on and you won’t find him much higher than 14/1 – but he is there for good reason.
- 2 runner-ups in 2025 and a T10 at The Players
- 5th, 10th, 3rd in his last 3 Augusta appearances
- A good stat to bear in mind for Masters champions is recent form, including a Top 5 earlier that same year…
2) Bryson DeChambeau – 14/1
Still not sure how I feel about Bryson but you cannot deny he is good for golf. Attracting new fans all the time, the two-time US open Champ may be cursed by the golf gods at Augusta for his ‘par-67’ comments, but I recently came across Rory McIlroy calling the Ryder Cup an ‘exhibition’ back in the day, before doing a complete U-turn and becoming a 7 time veteran and the beating heart of an unbelievable European team.
- Bryson recently said “Regarding the 67 comment, you mess up. I'm not a perfect person. Everybody messes up. You learn from your mistake, and that was definitely one."
- Two Top-10s in his last 4 on LIV and is leading in Miami. I have a friend on the ground who said Bryson drove it 420. Nice. His odds are slashed due to his performance this week.
- T6 in 2024 at Augusta
3) Joaquin Niemann – 25/1
Some ‘commentators’ will tell you Niemann is the world’s best golfer right now. Perhaps in the ‘Without Big 3’ column, you could make a case. The ‘LIV Dozen’ is something you might hear this week, as 12 LIV Players have made it into the field and will be wanting to prove a point.
- Two wins on LIV in 2025
- Masters record is T40-T35-T16-T22. He can clearly handle himself around Augusta and his current vein of form means you wouldn’t bet against him. These odds are a little short but I think he will give you value.
- He won in Singapore by five and in Adelaide by three after winning the Saudi International at the end of 2024. Niemann also came 3rd on the Asian Tour in India in February.
4) Russell Henley – 50/1
My ‘outsider’ is the lesser spotted Russell Henley. He is a solid golfer and seems to be in such good form it makes it hard to see where his next Missed Cut is coming from. He either bombs this week or is in the hunt.
To summarise:
- Three Top-15s in his last 5 outings at Augusta (albeit a three-year hiatus 2019-2021)
- A win at Bay Hill just weeks ago
- 4 Top-10s in 2025 already, from just 7 events.
5) Jordan Spieth – 30/1
21-year-old wire-to-wire winner in 2015, choked in 2016, shook off the demons to win The Open in 2017 (“GO GET THAT!”) and then became a dad and went through years of swing re-routes, and his dominance is becoming a distant memory in the longer-toothed golf sicko community (I’m 25 years old).
HOWEVER –
- 6 Top 5s and a win at Augusta in the last 10 years. Since 2021, T3-MC-T4-MC. The logic would tell you a T5 is all but guaranteed.
- Spieth has two Top-10s already in 2025 and fought hard at the Valspar, with 17 birdies and an eagle during the week, and a treble bogey on the 71st hole prevented him from another Top 10.
Always gives you a fun outing and I would not be surprised to see a back 9 of ~30 on Friday at Augusta to vault him into contention.
6) Patrick Cantlay – 30/1
The ubiquitous Patrick Cantlay has been lurking in the background throughout the LIV Golf saga. Think Ryder Cup, HatGate, private equity and some decent golf. If that didn’t register with you then I urge you to waste more hours in your life on the back stories within the professional game.
Anyway, Cantlay has:
- 4 top-25s in his last 6 outings at Augusta
- 3 Major Top 10s in the last 3 years including a T3 at the PGA Championship in 2023,
- He has posted 2 Top 5s this season already, a T12 at The Players and currently loitering T10 at the Valero Texas.
He’s knocking on the major door and the PGA Tour victory door, and both may coincide in Georgia next week. I expect a man of his talents to win at least one major.
7) Rory (6/1) vs Scheffler (4/1)
I don’t really need to say much here. We all want Rory to win The Masters. The ideal scenario is he tares down Scottie on Sunday and stops the putter getting cold. Scheffler is the world’s best golfer and he has been playing with his B-game this year so far, never finishing outside the top 25 and genuinely looking menacing every time he tees it up. Three jackets in four years would get him on the path to being one of golf’s greats.
It's 6/1 versus 4/1, the two best golfers who are unbeatable on their day, maybe we finally see what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?
Enjoy the week.
Pat.