Oakmont Preview: US Open 2025

Slightly taken aback as the 3rd major of 2025 upon us already! Alas, we move.

"Let the clumsy, the spineless, the alibi artists stand aside, a poor shot should be a shot irrevocably lost," stated Henry Clay Fownes, the course designer of Oakmont Country Club, PA, sometime around 1904.

The Church pews at Oakmont CC

Hosting its 10th US Open this week, the course has already played its part in the archives of golf history across a variety of tournaments. Winners here include Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Bobby Jones, Gene Sarazen, to name a few. Fierce, fast, relentless, I feel the winner this week is akin to the last man standing in a game of Bulldog. Everyone running for their life, where the easy targets get picked off, and the winner is maybe not the best athlete, but he got away unscathed.

In this spirit, we dive into the picks. Most punters have looked at previous Oakmont US Open winners (Dustin Johnson in 2016, Angel Cabrera in 2007) and found other courses where these players have had success. This would lead to Augusta National, Pebble Beach, Firestone (Cabrera had Top 5s in 2006 and 2009, DJ won here in 2016).

This line of reasoning would basically point you to Scottie Scheffler.

Instead, my picks are primarily based on previous wins on poa annua grass, bogey avoidance, a clear strength in their game that they can lean into this week, and a win earlier in the season to date. Clearly I would cover these bets with a tenner on Scottie.

1. Jon Rahm - 11/1

Rahm has played steadily all season, his US Open record since 2019 is T3-T23-WIN-T12-T10, and a WD last year due to injury. Pretty compelling, and was the only real contender with Scottie last month at Quail Hollow.

2. Shane Lowry - 35/1

He is due this year, and Portrush might be too much pressure this time around. Led through 54 in 2016, good bogey avoidance numbers, and quietly stewing as time goes on since his last notable win in the US. Four top 10s in 2025.

3. Tyrell Hatton - 50/1

Steady Top-25s in this event of late, Hatton has a tendency to be near the top of the pack on tough tracks. If he doesn’t implode, he plays well. He doesn’t have the temperament for a course of this nature, but he might emerge unscathed. 4 Top-20s in last 10 starts in this event.

4. Harris English - 66/1

English Harris - the people’s ballstriker. A win in January this year, a T2 at the PGA Championship last month, and several impressive results in between, like a T12 at Augusta and the Memorial, and a decent showing at the Genesis after an opening 75 for a T24. Fancy him to feature, where there is a premium on controlling your golf ball.

5. Brian Harman - 150/1

The 2023 Open Champion won in April in Texas, and then followed with a T3 at the RBC Heritage. He might need to throw the bag at it to reach some of the par fours in two but his strokes gained putting could lead to a decent E/W bet at 1/5 the odds.

Notables:

• Fancied a flutter on Finau due to the lack of water at Oakmont, but T3 Tony may succumb to the rough. He is more than long enough and has found his game in his last four starts, so at 80/1 it may be worth a spare quid.

• Ludvig Aberg is also trending, and has got his game back recently. I think at 25/1, too short, and he is prone to a quad. He will win a big one soon, unsure if this is the place.

• Joaquin Niemann obviously cannot be ignored with so many wins recently, but he beat Graeme McDowell and Anirban Lahiri in his last outing. If Rahm’s Top-10s on LIV come with a pinch of salt, then in my opinion so do the wins. Niemann is likely a top 10 player in the world, maybe a top 5, but with a single top 10 in major golf to his name, 20-something to 1 seems short.

Good luck!

Pat